Prime Minister Harper called for the federal election on March 26, to be scheduled for May 2. After getting a minority government in the 2008 election, Harper reached out to Canadians, and asked for a majority in the upcoming election, saying the Conservatives need it to protect the economic recovery and fend off the prospect of a coalition led by the Liberals. With just over a week until election day, attack campaigns from all sides continue to be aired, and the English and French debates lead to much controversy and change.
Debates…
In case Canadians didn’t prove already how Canadian they were, they felt they had to make it clear. Not to many people’s surprise, hockey trumped politics as the French debate, which was scheduled for April 14, had to be bumped back a day, because the Montreal Canadiens opened up their first round playoff series against the Boston Bruins. Of course, all party leaders agreed to the change. One must remember we live in Canada. If even one of them opposed the schedule change, they would have been labeled as “hockey haters.” Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe, made the initial request, knowing that he would lose much of his much needed audience if the debate and the game had to compete for viewers.
One of the big pieces of news prior to the debate, was that Green Party leader, Elizabeth May, was not going to be included in either of the debates, even though they got 6.8% of the popular vote in the 2008 election. However there was a Fringe Debate scheduled for April 23, at York University, for the other parties including, the Christian Heritage Party, the Communist Party of Canada, Pirate Party of Canada, Rhinoceros Party, Libertarian Party and First Peoples National Party. Even though the Green Party was invited, May refused, saying that her party is not a fringe party.
Soon after the English debate came around. To say the least, it was as disappointing as the French one. There was no clear leader, however NDP leader, Jack Layton was on his A-game, and had one of the best debates of his career. As for Harper, not the same case. If one thought he was a cold fish before, he just got a whole lot colder. The entire time he was a dull robot. Rarely getting off script, with many arguments that did not seem worthy of someone with a title such as his. Still, as bad as Harper was, he was still better than Ignatieff. One of the main reasons he was chosen as Liberal leader was his debating skills, but instead of smart, thought out arguments, he seemed to be attacking Harper the while time. As much as Harper deserves to be attacked, Ignatieff would have done better changing what he said a bit more, instead of repeating the same four or five points. Layton’s points on immigration were a major success for him, showing how policy oriented his party is. Gilles Duceppe was quite good in both debates, particularly in the French, and even though he was a little quieter in the English, he did well for his party.
Projected Polls…
Since the end of the last election in 2008, support for all the parties really has not changed dramatically. It looks like Harper is not going to be successful yet again in achieving a majority government. In the current House of Commons the Conservatives have 143 seats, Liberals have 77, Bloc has 47, and NDP has 36. Now, near the end of the election, support for the Conservatives is around 36 to 40%; Liberals and NDP are both around 25%, while Bloc is touching on 10%. Because of Layton’s work in the debate, he has been able to boost the NDP up with the Liberal, which is the highest they have been in sometime.
In a recent poll to Canadians, asking how well all the leaders do their jobs, Layton came in on top, getting a 50% approval, Harper got 33%, while Ignatieff and May are tied at the bottom with 24% approval. As for who Canadians want as their Prime Minister, it is just about a tie with Harper having 28% of the vote, and Layton just behind at 27%, while Ignatieff is far away at 13%.
However it looks like Harper’s efforts, and numerous commercial campaigns against the Liberals (Ignatieff), are going to fall short of a majority. Even though about 50% of Canadians in Alberta, and BC, where he holds much of his support, think that he deserves a majority, 45% of the country still thinks he does not deserve it. As for the Green party, support is lower than ever, anticipating they will get just 5% of the vote, which is the lowest in 3 years, highly attributed to the absence of the party in the debates.
The next week will be very key to Canada, and if Layton and the NDP’s continue to soar, it looks like Harpers’ Conservatives will be unsuccessful yet again in a majority government.
